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Author
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Topic: Attn All: What is this about really?
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cfalcon
OLDNBLD
Member # 19
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posted 07-29-2003 03:14 PM
http://tinyurl.com/ife0
Ok, so the idea was to create a system where people could bet money on political doings, right? So as to predict terrorism better?
See, this plan is so monumentally stupid, that I wonder if their method of extracting information en masse by systems like this isn't way, WAY better than we know.
From: 39°45' N, 104°52' W | Registered: Feb 2000
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cfalcon
OLDNBLD
Member # 19
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posted 07-29-2003 03:17 PM
Seriously, this is totally wacked. "Markets are better predictors than experts"... what?
What?
What kind of hive-math is responsible? Show yourself!
From: 39°45' N, 104°52' W | Registered: Feb 2000
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Barrierd
I have a colony of shrimp living in my bladder
Member # 3132
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posted 07-29-2003 03:54 PM
This is hilarious in its idiocy.
I can't beleive anyone could actually defend it with a straight face, or defend it at all. It is the wierdest proposition I've ever heard. How could they even think there wouldn't be any backlash?
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Where are my bitches
From: Victoria, B.C., Canada | Registered: Nov 2002
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MK
is somewhat large.
Member # 1445
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posted 07-29-2003 10:36 PM
I can picture it now...
"I'd like 5000 shares of death and 23 shares of nuclear winter please"
*crosses fingers
[that'd be what would happen]
Registered: Jan 2001
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Twinkle
I'm feeling fat and sassy~!
Member # 1690
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posted 07-29-2003 10:54 PM
The .mil page is the only thing keeping me from believing this is a satire.
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Hich loch faauto noxlattoyen.
From: Brinstar | Registered: Apr 2001
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AnnieKat
Suicidal Failure
Member # 3202
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posted 07-30-2003 03:39 AM
Oooh.
Gimme a million shares in "Bill Clinton gets caught again", plz.
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aתּņĩềκẢ†~ nθW |’m @ r33| ķıťŧŷ
Anthrax, will you marry me?
From: Anthrax's Love Nest | Registered: Jan 2003
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Donald
Bob the Builder
Member # 1551
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posted 07-30-2003 11:28 AM
this system is what our beloved captain would call "fuckdidiously dumbtarted".
And I want 5,000 shares of "Dubya gets re-elected".
From: In your girl's panties | Registered: Feb 2001
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Rolken
Vulcan
Member # 7
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posted 07-30-2003 11:34 AM
Weirdness is not the ultimate arbiter of "idiocy;" success or failure is. The folks at the Pentagon realize this. It's easy to condemn what you don't understand.
[ 07-30-2003, 11:36 AM: Message edited by: Rolken ]
From: Provo, UT | Registered: Feb 2000
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Zerot
I pay schoolgirls to verbally abuse me.
Member # 1295
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posted 07-30-2003 11:34 AM
It's just another way for Bush and his cronies to get more cash. They know when Osama's boys will attack, and if this was recieved well, they would put all the money into certain stocks when the time comes, and take the money and run.
jk hrhr
From: Lizton, Indiana | Registered: Dec 2000
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Wintermute
My custom title sucks.
Member # 5
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posted 07-30-2003 03:11 PM
Granted, whomever handled the public relations side of this should take a hard look at fast food management.
But I like how suddenly everyone from congresswomen to pokemon flunkies are now PhDs in information theory, and get to decide on the basis of a three paragraph newswire whether project ideas from fucking DARPA will ultimately develop into anything worthwhile. Rolken's right: spewing venom at the stupidity of something you know next to nothing about is a waste of time.
Many billions of dollars are probably being spent on homeland security measures that have no chance of securing anything. Fortunately for them they're merely boring. Why isn't it worth a measly couple million to see where this proposal might end up in a year or two? Because some frothy-mouthed armchair analysts can imagine a couple of macabre scenarios?
From: Winnipeg, Manitoba | Registered: Feb 2000
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cfalcon
OLDNBLD
Member # 19
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posted 07-30-2003 03:54 PM
Yea, this is what I am saying.
Picture this: a market set up to predict terrorist actions.
Now, clearly everyone thought of the obvious possibility of someone "in the know" profitting from various amounts of terrorism.
Which means that the DARPA guys *KNEW THAT* and said "Oh, that's NO BIG DEAL, this market will be SUCH A PERFECT PREDICTOR that we don't even give a FUCK about that."
So the point of my post, which most people missed is this:
If this idea is so stupid, why did they consider it? It's clearly dumb, given the amount of information any of us have. So what in holy HELL kind of math is secreted away behind those walls?
What secrets do they have that make this sound like a good idea?
This is why I posted it, and why I named the topic the way I did.
From: 39°45' N, 104°52' W | Registered: Feb 2000
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Wintermute
My custom title sucks.
Member # 5
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posted 07-30-2003 06:34 PM
Which means that the DARPA guys *KNEW THAT* and said "Oh, that's NO BIG DEAL, this market will be SUCH A PERFECT PREDICTOR that we don't even give a FUCK about that."
That's self-contradictory. If they thought it was such a perfect predictor, they wouldn't have to worry about the terrorist getting paid, because whatever action it was would be preventable.
There's some interesting discussion here about terrorists trying to profit from or mislead the system.
It's clearly dumb
Why?
So what in holy HELL kind of math is secreted away behind those walls?
My understanding is that they don't really have to know. They can explore the issue empirically. What's the big secret? Markets are apparently good at predicting things - math alone can't tell you that, you have to watch market behavior and correlate it to real world events.
From: Winnipeg, Manitoba | Registered: Feb 2000
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Land und Leute
HETEROSEXUAL
Member # 1040
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posted 07-30-2003 06:57 PM
What if the hokey pokey really is what it's all about?
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theclaw: I can't rate myself!!
Registered: Oct 2000
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cfalcon
OLDNBLD
Member # 19
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posted 07-30-2003 07:23 PM
Ok everyone, Wintermute and I have the same opinions on this. I seem to be having difficulty convincing him of this, however.
Which means that the DARPA guys *KNEW THAT* and said "Oh, that's NO BIG DEAL, this market will be SUCH A PERFECT PREDICTOR that we don't even give a FUCK about that."
That's self-contradictory. If they thought it was such a perfect predictor, they wouldn't have to worry about the terrorist getting paid, because whatever action it was would be preventable.
I think you said the same thing I did in different words: that they are so confident in the market model that they aren't even worried about Mohammurderer and Al-Kaboom grabbing futures in Falling Buildings, because they know that that little action will clue them off.
I find that level of certainty both awesome and a little frightening, that's all.
It's clearly dumb
Why?
Because the average person immediately realizes that if the market is setup as "if I do X then I can make money" then people will do X, where X here is "blow up Americans". No, the average person doesn't realize that most terrorists would be better off betting *against* terror and then getting out of the market slowly before it happens... something that, apparantly, the government would be able to discern by looking at the market.
Since logically, this market would just encourage terrorists to make money or ignore it, it seems monumentally stupid. So for it not to be, the market thing has to be much better than we think.
Remember: The Sept 11th attacks were the biggest ones around, and there wasn't much in the way of extraneous info about them. If the market effectively is "Will you personally plant an anonymous bomb at the nearest federal building?" then let me tell you, no amount of buzzing is going to predict exactly when you drive over with the van full of fertilizer and the clever escape plan. Other market studies have been *aggregate opinions* about things that everyone knows a little about. The whole idea is to add those bits of info together to get a whole pie. That's why it works for inventions and for weather and presidential elections and whatnot- but this is like a market on what's going on behind closed doors. The terrorists use cells, remember- and they might have ways of checking on members to see if they are "ratting them out" by going online and buying futures. If you can't buy off the terrorists, you can't win, because, presumably, the aggregate information level is very low.
Also remember: markets are good at outsmarting people. Let's say the market for New York getting ran into with jets goes up again. Great. Now the government looks around, finds the guys, and pow! No falling buildings.
Cool. Cool for everyone except the people who bought those futures correctly! Let's say you bought those futures because you are smart- you had no ties to the terrorists, you just figured it out as likely soon. Now you get punished! So the market, at a simple level, will have to adjust for the people who are watching it- I mean, if everytime a company jumped up on the stock market the government shut it down and it's stock became valueless, the market would work very differently.
Even if this was counted correctly (if they had a "foiled plan" back plan that still let you get compensated for the prediction), I'm still not sure that the interference would be small enough to let the market work.
So in order for this to work, the math they do on the market can't just be "did the numbers go up". They have to be watching for patterns that they know somehow indicate terrorism, and they have to be able to adjust those whatever neural net expert systems God only knows to account for their own presence as the market tries to do the same in reverse. So assuming they know all this (and they almost assuredly do), that tells me that however they analyze markets over there at DARPA has to be pretty fucking fierce.
Note that I am in no way for the termination of this project. I'm just frightened that our government was so sure that it would work that it was willing to bet lives on it (technically)- that the "hive mind" is that good.
That market analysis is so good, and that we don't know the details.
From: 39°45' N, 104°52' W | Registered: Feb 2000
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Wintermute
My custom title sucks.
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posted 07-31-2003 03:15 AM
I seem to be having difficulty convincing him of this, however.
Maybe, but this is only due to the sentences you've been writing. ![[Razz]](tongue.gif)
I think you said the same thing I did in different words: that they are so confident in the market model that they aren't even worried about Mohammurderer and Al-Kaboom grabbing futures in Falling Buildings, because they know that that little action will clue them off.
Ok. The thought crossed my mind that that's what you meant, but I was led astray by the DARPA guys saying, "Oh, that's no big deal," as compared to saying, "oh, but that deal can't even happen."
I find that level of certainty both awesome and a little frightening, that's all.
Well, I think we've reached an understanding that this isn't really the scenario. The fact that some terrorists might find a way to profit is an issue that needs to be explored, and that needs to be weighed against the potential benefit of the system. But I don't think it's a sufficiently important outcome that DARPA needs to be 100% certain about the system's predictive ability in order to justify it. Like the Reason article pointed out, security agencies pay money to bad guys all the friggin time. It's an important and established method of intelligence-gathering (apparently).
Because the average person immediately realizes that if the market is setup as "if I do X then I can make money" then people will do X, where X here is "blow up Americans".
This thought may cross people's minds, but (as you know) it's not really that simple. For one thing, it's not actually easy to blow up Americans. If it were, Pornbot would have killed everyone by now. You need confederates, money, time, organization, and the will to murder. Plus you stand a pretty good chance of getting killed or incarcerated for life. If you're going to go through all that, why not just rob a bank? We need to know more about the system to know how much of an incentive it would really offer. One reason that all the moral crusading on the issue is so aggravating is that from the looks of it they were preparing to go about it in a small-scale and experimental fashion.
I think the scenario that many pundits were finding repugnant is that existing baddies could now get paid if they succeed in their schemes. But as the Reason article mentioned, the whole point of the system is that security agencies would be getting something potentially very valuable for their money. The whole purpose of the market is sort of to ensure that.
If the market effectively is "Will you personally plant an anonymous bomb at the nearest federal building?" then let me tell you, no amount of buzzing is going to predict exactly when you drive over with the van full of fertilizer and the clever escape plan. Other market studies have been *aggregate opinions* about things that everyone knows a little about. The whole idea is to add those bits of info together to get a whole pie. That's why it works for inventions and for weather and presidential elections and whatnot- but this is like a market on what's going on behind closed doors.
Yeah, that's a really good point. I'm not sure I understand that part of the plan either. But on the other hand many bad things that merkins would like better advance warning about are simply too big to hide. You need to move around a lot of Saudi oil money to operate Al Qaida. Someone always knows something, and people talk. And many interesting events are much, much bigger (e.g. world's largest nation and superpower crumbling).
That market analysis is so good, and that we don't know the details.
No, we don't, though I'm still not convinced that they're all that interesting from a math point of view. I think the main thing here is a clever, efficient, self-maintaining system for aggregating the judgements of informed, well-connected, and highly motivated individuals. What they do with the resulting data may be quite sophisticated, or it may be rule-of-thumb. There are other enforcement mechanisms in place, and maybe this system would be worthwhile if it can even point them in the right direction.
From: Winnipeg, Manitoba | Registered: Feb 2000
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Mr. K
Racist
Member # 2
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posted 08-02-2003 07:35 AM
Maybe they are just big Stern fans.
There's a guy who comes on from time to time promoting something along the lines of betonanything.com.
You can just come up with anything you wanna bet on, they'll give you odds, and you can bet on it.
Never actually gone to the site, but you can imagine the amusing things they've bet on...
From: Cinnabar Island | Registered: Feb 2000
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GenyaA310
Farting Nudist
Member # 3409
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posted 08-02-2003 04:48 PM
That idea is awesome. They can rig it and go assasinate those leaders so that the futures market is always high. No, I'm joking, but I think some Foghorn Cleghorns that are still abound in the Pentagon in Bushs administration be gotten rid of just like the Soviet spies in Dem. administrations of the past.
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You and I have a rendevous with destiny. We can secure for ourselves this, the last best hope that man has to offer or the first steps into a thousand years of darkness. Ronald Reagan
From: Province of Wallachia | Registered: Jun 2003
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cfalcon
OLDNBLD
Member # 19
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posted 08-02-2003 05:28 PM
Hey, I just thought of something that may be a flaw in the system:
We know that the entire point is to clue in the US government before it happens, right?
Well, what about "terroist" actions the US government wants to see accomplished, if any?
Let's assume that we want Fidel dead. So now there is a system in place to reward someone or some group that assassinates him- and, though the US government sees it coming and could prevent it, they don't- in fact, they just start mobilizing the crack team of installable Cuban Democracy Candidates.
By having this market, wouldn't the US basically be setting up an ultra-anonymous method of encouraging assassinations- but only of those groups that are hostile towards US interests?
PS: just hit reload on topic. Genya might have just said something like this.
From: 39°45' N, 104°52' W | Registered: Feb 2000
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GenyaA310
Farting Nudist
Member # 3409
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posted 08-02-2003 06:10 PM
quote:
Originally posted by cfalcon:
Hey, I just thought of something that may be a flaw in the system:
We know that the entire point is to clue in the US government before it happens, right?
Well, what about "terroist" actions the US government wants to see accomplished, if any?
Let's assume that we want Fidel dead. So now there is a system in place to reward someone or some group that assassinates him- and, though the US government sees it coming and could prevent it, they don't- in fact, they just start mobilizing the crack team of installable Cuban Democracy Candidates.
By having this market, wouldn't the US basically be setting up an ultra-anonymous method of encouraging assassinations- but only of those groups that are hostile towards US interests?
PS: just hit reload on topic. Genya might have just said something like this.
I have qualms about a program like that because the US could really fudge that up. I mean consider when we sent dissadents into Iraq to assasinate Saddam in the early 90's and didn't back them up when they begged for our help. A better plan would be to repeal the non-assasination law we have set in place and send snipers into different places to get our enemies.
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You and I have a rendevous with destiny. We can secure for ourselves this, the last best hope that man has to offer or the first steps into a thousand years of darkness. Ronald Reagan
From: Province of Wallachia | Registered: Jun 2003
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Mr. K
Racist
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posted 08-05-2003 09:02 AM
GenyaA310: A better plan would be to repeal the non-assasination law we have set in place and send snipers into different places to get our enemies.
Yeah, lucky for Uday and Qusay, we don't assassinate people.
From: Cinnabar Island | Registered: Feb 2000
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Ikuse
Farting Nudist
Member # 3037
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posted 08-05-2003 09:15 AM
Interestingly enough, "bombing the fuck out of" doesn't amount to "assassination of" in the States.
From: In my pants. | Registered: Aug 2002
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IceHawk78
NOBODY IMPORTANT
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posted 08-05-2003 11:50 AM
betonanything.com isn't up yet.
From: Ohio | Registered: Apr 2001
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137
Whiner
Member # 1465
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posted 08-06-2003 02:36 AM
I was told that because Uday and Qusay hold military rank, it's not considered assassination in wartime. (Did we declare war? Did they?) That's why we were able to bomb the building they thought Saddam was in on that first night.
I was told.
EDIT: the "they" in the second to last sentence.
[ 08-06-2003, 03:33 AM: Message edited by: 137 ]
From: Space. Like, outer space. | Registered: Jan 2001
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Mr. K
Racist
Member # 2
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posted 08-06-2003 06:35 AM
IceHawk78: betonanything.com isn't up yet.
That wasn't the actual site. It was something similar, tho. I think it had something to do with sports.
By the way, the rule is that we're Merkins and we can do whatever the fuck we want.
If you want to show pictures of dead soldiers or POWs, that wrong, but we can do it.
If you wanna assassinate George W. Bush, that's wrong, but we can assassinate any leader we like.
Stuff like that.
[ 08-06-2003, 06:36 AM: Message edited by: Mr. K ]
From: Cinnabar Island | Registered: Feb 2000
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137
Whiner
Member # 1465
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posted 08-06-2003 07:33 AM
Also, we reserve the right to give our food-stuffs ridiculous names when they previously described a people that disagree with us on a certain point.
From: Space. Like, outer space. | Registered: Jan 2001
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