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Author Topic: Focus Band...
Mewone
I have a pokemon as my username. I mean, come on.
Member # 1694

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posted 10-23-2001 11:36 PM      Profile for Mewone     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
What exactly are the chances of Focus Band working? Twice? Three times? And does it differ from Poké to Poké? Has anyone done any research? Sorry if it's been asked before. Thanks!
From: Azure Heights | Registered: Apr 2001  |  IP: Logged
MK
is somewhat large.
Member # 1445

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posted 10-24-2001 12:32 AM      Profile for MK     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Ok, now, these numbers may be off by just a little, but, here's the deal... Focus Band should work on all Pokémon the same, and the odds of focus band saving the user each time from a knock out (under normal conditions) is 1 out of 10 (about 10%) chance... Focus Band can work multiple times in a row, but the chances are still 1 in 10 each time, my Meganium once held on with focus band 3 times in a row...

The odds of Focus Band working 2 times in a row are 1 in 100. The odds of Focus Band working 3 times in a row are 1 in 1000. Four times is 1 in 10000. Just follow the pattern...

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10,000Lb.Snorlax
loves long time.
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posted 10-24-2001 05:08 PM      Profile for 10,000Lb.Snorlax   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
The odds of Focus Band working 2 times in a row are 1 in 100. The odds of Focus Band working 3 times in a row are 1 in 1000. Four times is 1 in 10000. Just follow the pattern...

I'm gonna present another possible figure.

chance of focus band working:

1st time: 1/10
2nd time: 1/10
3rd time: 1/10
...

therefore, there is a 4/40 chance that focusband will work for a forth consecutive time. It doesn't make sense that they would design it to work like endure (ie having less and less of a chance of working each time). The fact that you say you've had it work 3 times in a row suggests that the chances of 1/1000 are a little too low (afterall, I hardly ever miss with a 99.6% accuracy move, let alone land a move with .1% accuracy, as you're suggesting having done using focus band).

one of us should test this... it might take a while to get a bunch of trials done, though


From: Denver | Registered: Feb 2000  |  IP: Logged
Dark_Herakurosu
Farting Nudist
Member # 1677

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posted 10-24-2001 05:22 PM      Profile for Dark_Herakurosu   Author's Homepage   Email Dark_Herakurosu   Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
But the ratio of 1/10 makes it less likely to work every consecutive turn. Like flipping a coin. The first time the odds are 1/2 to get heads. But every toss makes it less likely to land on heads. So the 2nd time its 1/4, the third its 1/8, the 4th its 1/16, and so on. MK was right.

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From: the wreckage of Indianapolis | Registered: Apr 2001  |  IP: Logged
Dark Lugia
Farting Nudist
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posted 10-24-2001 06:32 PM      Profile for Dark Lugia   Author's Homepage   Email Dark Lugia   Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
MK is right, but not in the way you explained it...
It's simple probability...
10,000LB snorlax is right in that there is still a 1/10 chance of the move working on the fourth hit....but what MK is saying is that the probability of it working 4 times in a row consecutively is 1/10000...

in other words, there is only a 1/10000 chance of Focus Band working 4 times in a row...nothing to do with the actual chance of it working during that specific turn, that's still 1/10.

If this is what you were trying to say Dark_Herakurosu...eh, it was unclear.


From: I hope you explode violently tomorrow. | Registered: Dec 2000  |  IP: Logged
MK
is somewhat large.
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posted 10-24-2001 11:00 PM      Profile for MK     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Ok, so to clear it all up...

And I apologize that this is just like the above example...

Focus Band always has that one in ten chance of working. It's just that the odds of it working consecutively get worse and worse.

Now, this does not mean it is like Protect, where, it goes 100%, 50%, 25%, etc... It means this...

Everytime you flip a coin there is a 50-50 chance of heads. You always have that equal chance of getting a heads, but, flip a coin 5 times, odds are not ALL of them will be heads. ALL 5 coin flips have the EQUAL chance of being heads, but, the repetition of heads is what becomes unlikely as the flips increase. It's the same with focus band, just like the coin flip, it ALWAYS has the one in ten chance of working, but, consecutively it gets worse and worse...

1 in 10 [working 1 time]
1 in 100 [working twice in a row]
1 in 1000 [working thrice in a row]

Since I'm going into detail, here's more detail. The way you calculate odds like this is like this...

The coin flip. What are the odds of getting heads 5 times in a row? Well, each flip has a 1/2 chance, so, it's 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 which is a 1/32 chance of flipping a coin 5 times in a row and getting heads all five times. It's the same with focus band working...

1/10 x 1/10 = 1/100 [chances of f.band working 2 times in a row]

1/10 x 1/10 x 1/10 = 1/1000 [chances of f.band working 3 times in a row]

So there ya go, hey, that rhymes!

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