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Author Topic: CH formulae
Wintermute
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posted 04-23-2000 07:03 AM      Profile for Wintermute   Author's Homepage   Email Wintermute   Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
For most physical/special attacks, it's

(attacker's base Speed / 2) / 256

For the high-CH moves (Karate Chop, Slash, Razor Leaf, Crabhammer), it's

(attacker's base Speed x 4) / 256

The numerator in parentheses has a maximum value of 255, though. For the high-CH moves, anyone with a base Speed of 63.75 (255 / 4) or higher will CH 99.61% of the time.

Also, Focus Energy in RBY reduces the chances of a CH by a factor of 4, so if you're using FE plus a regular physical/special attack, it's

(attacker's base Speed / 8) / 256

If using FE plus a high-CH move, it's

attacker's base Speed / 256

I suspect that FE was intended to increase the probability by a factor of 4. I further suspect that this is what it actually does in Stadium. Continue has provided some data consistent with this; the project is ongoing.

It would be impractical for me to summarize the data that led to these formulae here: I did over 10k trials with many different pokémon under a variety of conditions. But if anyone wants a text file summarizing the exact findings, you can e-mail me. I especially encourage ppl to request the file if they think anything about the above is incorrect or incomplete. Who knows? I might be wrong about something, and I welcome any input, but you should see why I assert the above before disputing it.

Thank you to: Porcupine and Continue, for providing additional data. Mr.K, for being a sounding board, putting up with endless griping about sampling error, and making this cool site for us.

[This message has been edited by Wintermute (edited 04-23-2000).]


From: Winnipeg, Manitoba | Registered: Feb 2000  |  IP: Logged
PikachuThunder
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posted 04-23-2000 08:34 AM      Profile for PikachuThunder        Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Excellent.

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Project:Metronome

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GolemKong
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posted 04-23-2000 08:51 AM      Profile for GolemKong   Author's Homepage   Email GolemKong   Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Great

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"Probability can be a real b!tch."
-Mr. K

"God bless incompetence! "
-Jackdaw


From: Ontario! | Registered: Feb 2000  |  IP: Logged
Marcus Majarra
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posted 04-24-2000 03:21 PM      Profile for Marcus Majarra   Author's Homepage   Email Marcus Majarra   Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Good job. Once I get to the Crit. Hit. section of my Mechanics Doc, I'll give you credit for the formula.

And it does make sense too.

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Marcus Majarra
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From: Montreal, Quebec, Canada | Registered: Feb 2000  |  IP: Logged
Porcupine
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posted 04-24-2000 09:45 PM      Profile for Porcupine   Email Porcupine   Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Wow!!!!! Thanks, Wintermute! =D

You're right, that formula is super simple, uses computerish numbers, and matches up with the high-CH rates of Parasect, Ditto, and Sandslash. So I guess that must be it for sure.

I only wonder one thing, although it's not very important. Howcome I have seen Slash miss so many times while playing Pokemon (one player game)? Slash is my favorite move in Pokemon Red/Blue and I used it continuously on my Sandslash. It doesn't miss often though, and given random error, I wouldn't disagree with any maximum CH rate of 96-98%.

But a CH rate of 99.6% would mean that you are as likely to miss (a CH) a Slash on Sandslash, as you are likely to miss a Flamethrower on Charizard. I think I've seen way more failed Slash. Oh well, it's just me probably. =D I'll e-mail you for the text file later.


BTW I see that on Azure the miss rates of stuff like Recover has been changed to 100%. GREAT job on figuring out that bug in Rest/Recover that explains what Mr. K was mentioning with his Snorlax all this time. =D

So which moves are truly 100% and which aren't? Are they all updated on the site? I'll go look. But why would something like Recover and Barrier be 100% (site says so I checked) and something like Teleport which also affects yourself be 99.6% (I saw a wild Abra miss once).

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From: Honolulu, HI, USA | Registered: Feb 2000  |  IP: Logged
Mr. K
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posted 04-24-2000 10:30 PM      Profile for Mr. K   Author's Homepage   Email Mr. K   Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Porcupine:
GREAT job on figuring out that bug in Rest/Recover that explains what Mr. K was mentioning with his Snorlax all this time.

Thanks! One of a very small number of things I've done that could be considered legit research (or at least a "discovery").

quote:
So which moves are truly 100% and which aren't? Are they all updated on the site? I'll go look. But why would something like Recover and Barrier be 100% (site says so I checked) and something like Teleport which also affects yourself be 99.6% (I saw a wild Abra miss once).

I don't speculate much any more on why Nintendo did some of the things they did, and which are bugs and which are on purpose.

But as for the recent 99.6 to 100 updates...I just updated the attacks we're pretty sure about. So, right now, there's no difference between 99.6 attacks we aren't sure about (Roar) and attacks we are sure about (Surf).

Sorry about that, but we'll be making updates as we discover them. But don't take any of our 99.6s as gospel!

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Azure Heights Pokémon Laboratory


From: Cinnabar Island | Registered: Feb 2000  |  IP: Logged
White Cat
Nobody knows why I'm an admin.
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posted 04-24-2000 11:43 PM      Profile for White Cat   Author's Homepage   Email White Cat      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
I haven't done extensive testing on this, but I'm quite sure that Teleport's success rate is based on the relative speeds of the Pokemon. I found that when using a slow Pokemon, wild Abras would always be able to get away, but when I used a fast Pokemon (or one that faster due to being at a higher level) it would frequently fail.
From: Calgary | Registered: Feb 2000  |  IP: Logged
Wintermute
My custom title sucks.
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posted 04-25-2000 04:53 AM      Profile for Wintermute   Author's Homepage   Email Wintermute   Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Thanks for the kind words, everyone.

PikachuThunder, that was a nice job you did working out the CH rates for each pokemon on P:M!

Porcupine,
I only wonder one thing, although it's not very important. How come I have seen Slash miss so many times while playing Pokemon (one player game)?

I'm not sure. I assume you mean "hit but not CH", and not "miss altogether"?

One thing I really should have stated in the original post: all of my data, and thus all my conclusions, were based on link battle conditions. I suppose it's entirely possible that the CH rates may be somewhat different in single-player mode. I'll have to do a bit of testing to see how well the results generalize to game battles.

It doesn't miss often though, and given random error, I wouldn't disagree with any maximum CH rate of 96-98%.

Well, all I can really speak about is the data I collected. Maybe it just subjectively seemed more often to you, or maybe there's a difference in game battles vs. link battles. I'll send you that file soon so you can take a look.

GREAT job on figuring out that bug in Rest/Recover that explains what Mr. K was mentioning with his Snorlax all this time.

That was a nice piece of work, but it was all K. It was a great observation he made.

White Cat, interesting observation. I wonder if something similar is happening with moves like Growl... I've seen that one fail repeatedly when used by a very low-level pokemon against a higher-level one.


From: Winnipeg, Manitoba | Registered: Feb 2000  |  IP: Logged
PikachuThunder
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posted 04-25-2000 04:24 PM      Profile for PikachuThunder        Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Wintermute:
PikachuThunder, that was a nice job you did working out the CH rates for each pokemon on P:M!

Heh, thanks. I was just bored that Sunday morning when I did that.


Here's a direct link to the CH rates, if anyone's interested.

pub2.ezboard.com/fprojectmetronomepokmonvideogames.showMessage?topicID=675.topic&index=1

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Project:Metronome

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10,000Lb.Snorlax
loves long time.
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posted 04-25-2000 05:33 PM      Profile for 10,000Lb.Snorlax   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
When my sandshrew learned "slash" at around level 20, it would only critical hit about 50% of the time, until it gained about 3 more levels, then it did it always would critical hit. I do distinctly remember Slash not critical hitting multiple times in a row when sandshrew learned it.

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Muk
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From: Denver | Registered: Feb 2000  |  IP: Logged
Ryuujin
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posted 09-09-2000 10:16 AM      Profile for Ryuujin   Author's Homepage   Email Ryuujin   Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Great! - could someone tell that to the guy who runs the PBS? - his CH formula is totally nutted...

...quite often one player gets huge amounts of CH's without explanations on PBS (and it's not like the above formulae show that causes it)


From: Depths of hell (South West England) | Registered: Jun 2000  |  IP: Logged
White Cat
Nobody knows why I'm an admin.
Member # 42

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posted 09-10-2000 03:16 AM      Profile for White Cat   Author's Homepage   Email White Cat      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
The PBS critical hit rates have always seemed right to me (although multi-hit moves were glitched for awhile).

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-- Batman


From: Calgary | Registered: Feb 2000  |  IP: Logged
Pokecapn
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posted 09-10-2000 06:37 PM      Profile for Pokecapn   Author's Homepage   Email Pokecapn   Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by PikachuThunder:
URL=http://pub2.ezboard.com/fprojectmetronome pokmonvideogames.showMessage?topicID=675.topic&index=1]pub2.ez board.com/fprojectmetronomepokmonvideogames.showMessage?topicID=675 .topic&index=1[/URL]


I reccoment you edit that, lest you want Mr.K breathing down your neck.

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o.B


From: (some) | Registered: May 2000  |  IP: Logged
Ryuujin
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posted 09-11-2000 02:41 PM      Profile for Ryuujin   Author's Homepage   Email Ryuujin   Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
The PBS critical hit rates have always seemed right to me (although multi-hit moves were glitched for awhile).

No - One battle I won (very few that is) I managed to do CH's 9 times out of 10.

On another occasion someone managed 12 CH's in a game against me (5 in a row) while in the game I scored only 2 CH's in total - when the number should be even (I had the speed advantge most of the time).

[This message has been edited by Ryuujin (edited 09-11-2000).]


From: Depths of hell (South West England) | Registered: Jun 2000  |  IP: Logged


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